Bass Diffusion Model by 1749.io
Understanding the Bass Diffusion Model
The Bass Diffusion Model is a mathematical model used to forecast the adoption of new products or technologies. It estimates three parameters: p (coefficient of innovation), q (coefficient of imitation), and m (potential market size). 'p' represents the likelihood that an individual will adopt the innovation due to its sucessful pre-launch marketing and overall brand awareness (e.g adopters of new iphones on release day), 'q' represents the likelihood of adoption due to social influence facilitated by ongoing marketing and word-of-mouth, and 'm' is the total number of potential adopters in the market.
Bass Diffusion Tool Instructions
To use this tool, download the provided template file and fill in your historical sales data. The file should contain volume sales per time period (e.g., weekly or monthly) and can cover any length of time. Once you've added your data, upload the file using the "Upload CSV File" button, and adjust the forecast length as desired. Click the "Estimate Parameters" button to run the model and view the estimated parameters and fit plot.